College enrollment during economic downturns: A historical perspective
Over the years, research has suggested that economic downturns will lead to increases in college enrollment. As we have officially entered another economically challenging time, it offers an opportunity to reflect on the previous decades’ enrollment response to a contracting economy.
In the past 28 years, the National Bureau of Economic Research has officially designated a few periods of time when our nation has experienced economic contraction. These periods are outlined in the chart and include the early 1980s, 1990-1992, 2001 and the current downturn — identified as starting in December 2007 with the end not yet known.
An analysis by the Minnesota Private College Research Foundation shows that enrollment at private colleges (including for-profit) in Minnesota generally increased during and immediately after economic contraction. The lone exception was in the early 1990s, when Minnesota deviated from the rest of the country and actually decreased college enrollment, according to data from the Minnesota Office of Higher Education.
Data for public and private colleges reflect the same patterns. While there have been some fluctuations in the enrollment trend, the overall picture has been one of growth. From 1980 to 2008, enrollment grew 52 percent at public institutions in Minnesota and grew 243 percent at private institutions (largely due to growth in private career schools and online education).
Whether or not Minnesota will see an increase in college enrollment this time is uncertain. Previous decades saw growth in high school graduates each year which provided a large pool of college applicants. Adults who returned to college to upgrade skills to find new jobs added to the pool. That picture is changing.
Between 2008 and 2015, the number of high school graduates in Minnesota is projected to decrease nine percent. This alone may affect college enrollment trends. But, Minnesota, like other states in the nation, will need to replace the educated baby boomers in its labor force who are retiring. These openings and the projected growth in new jobs that will require (or demand) a college degree, point to the need to maintain strong college enrollments.
It will be important to increase participation by students whose families don’t have a history of attending college and to provide access to degree-seeking adults who enroll by choice or because of job loss. How successfully we do these two things may have a significant impact on our state’s college enrollment trends and the health of our economy.